diff --git a/scripts/replay_paper_trades.py b/scripts/replay_paper_trades.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b006983
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/replay_paper_trades.py
@@ -0,0 +1,314 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""
+全量重放脚本 v2：用真实成交价(agg_trades) + 原始信号重算所有paper_trades的结果
+
+修复点（xiaofan审阅后）：
+1. 事件判定按时间戳最先发生，不是固定优先级
+2. TP1后进入半仓状态机，pnl_r不重复计算全仓
+3. flip与价格触发冲突：谁时间早用谁，同时间优先价格触发
+4. 保本价显式常量，区分净保本/毛保本
+"""
+import psycopg2
+from datetime import datetime, timezone, timedelta
+
+BJ = timezone(timedelta(hours=8))
+TIMEOUT_MS = 60 * 60 * 1000  # 60分钟
+
+# 保本价偏移（毛保本，不含手续费，仅防止SL=entry被1tick打掉）
+BE_OFFSET_LONG  = 1.0005   # LONG: SL移到entry*1.0005
+BE_OFFSET_SHORT = 0.9995   # SHORT: SL移到entry*0.9995
+
+STRATEGY_CONFIG = {
+    'v52_8signals': {'sl': 2.1, 'tp1': 1.4, 'tp2': 3.15},
+    'v51_baseline': {'sl': 1.4, 'tp1': 1.05, 'tp2': 2.1},
+}
+
+def ts_bj(ts_ms):
+    return datetime.fromtimestamp(ts_ms / 1000, BJ).strftime('%m-%d %H:%M:%S')
+
+def replay_trade(cur, tid, symbol, direction, strategy, entry_ts, atr):
+    cfg = STRATEGY_CONFIG.get(strategy)
+    if not cfg:
+        return None, f"未知策略: {strategy}"
+
+    # 1. 真实入场价（entry_ts时刻最新成交价）
+    cur.execute("""
+        SELECT price FROM agg_trades 
+        WHERE symbol=%s AND time_ms <= %s 
+        ORDER BY time_ms DESC LIMIT 1
+    """, (symbol, entry_ts))
+    row = cur.fetchone()
+    if not row:
+        return None, "找不到entry时刻的agg_trade"
+    entry = row[0]
+
+    # 2. 计算原始TP/SL
+    rd = cfg['sl'] * atr
+    if rd <= 0:
+        return None, f"risk_distance={rd}，ATR={atr}无效"
+
+    if direction == 'LONG':
+        sl_orig = entry - rd
+        tp1 = entry + cfg['tp1'] * atr
+        tp2 = entry + cfg['tp2'] * atr
+    else:
+        sl_orig = entry + rd
+        tp1 = entry - cfg['tp1'] * atr
+        tp2 = entry - cfg['tp2'] * atr
+
+    timeout_ts = entry_ts + TIMEOUT_MS
+
+    # 3. 加载该时段内所有agg_trades价格（按时间顺序）
+    cur.execute("""
+        SELECT time_ms, price FROM agg_trades 
+        WHERE symbol=%s AND time_ms > %s AND time_ms <= %s
+        ORDER BY time_ms ASC
+    """, (symbol, entry_ts, timeout_ts))
+    price_rows = cur.fetchall()
+
+    # 4. 加载该时段内第一个反向信号（signal_flip检测）
+    cur.execute("""
+        SELECT ts FROM signal_indicators
+        WHERE symbol=%s AND strategy=%s AND ts > %s AND ts <= %s
+          AND signal IS NOT NULL AND signal != ''
+          AND signal != %s
+        ORDER BY ts ASC
+        LIMIT 1
+    """, (symbol, strategy, entry_ts, timeout_ts, direction))
+    flip_row = cur.fetchone()
+    flip_ts = flip_row[0] if flip_row else None
+
+    # 5. 状态机：按时间顺序处理事件
+    sl_current = sl_orig   # 当前有效SL（可能移到保本价）
+    tp1_hit = False
+    tp1_hit_ts = None
+    tp1_r = abs(tp1 - entry) / rd  # 预计算，TP1触发后固定
+
+    result_status = None
+    result_exit_ts = None
+    result_exit_price = None
+    result_pnl_r = None
+
+    for time_ms, price in price_rows:
+        # 关键：先检查flip_ts是否比当前tick更早（tie-break：同时间优先价格触发）
+        if flip_ts and flip_ts < time_ms:
+            # flip发生在这笔tick之前，flip优先
+            cur.execute("""
+                SELECT price FROM agg_trades 
+                WHERE symbol=%s AND time_ms <= %s 
+                ORDER BY time_ms DESC LIMIT 1
+            """, (symbol, flip_ts))
+            fp = cur.fetchone()
+            flip_price = fp[0] if fp else price
+
+            if direction == 'LONG':
+                flip_pnl_half = (flip_price - entry) / rd
+            else:
+                flip_pnl_half = (entry - flip_price) / rd
+
+            if tp1_hit:
+                # 已TP1：半仓已在tp1出，剩余半仓在flip_price出
+                result_pnl_r = 0.5 * tp1_r + 0.5 * flip_pnl_half
+            else:
+                result_pnl_r = flip_pnl_half
+
+            result_status = 'signal_flip'
+            result_exit_ts = flip_ts
+            result_exit_price = flip_price
+            break
+
+        if direction == 'LONG':
+            if not tp1_hit:
+                if price <= sl_current:
+                    result_status = 'sl'
+                    result_exit_ts = time_ms
+                    result_exit_price = sl_orig  # 按挂单价成交
+                    result_pnl_r = -1.0
+                    break
+                if price >= tp1:
+                    # TP1触发：半仓止盈，SL移保本
+                    tp1_hit = True
+                    tp1_hit_ts = time_ms
+                    sl_current = entry * BE_OFFSET_LONG
+            else:
+                # 半仓状态机：只剩50%仓位
+                if price <= sl_current:
+                    # 保本SL触发
+                    result_status = 'sl_be'
+                    result_exit_ts = time_ms
+                    result_exit_price = sl_current
+                    result_pnl_r = 0.5 * tp1_r  # 半仓TP1已实现
+                    break
+                if price >= tp2:
+                    # TP2触发
+                    tp2_r = (tp2 - entry) / rd
+                    result_status = 'tp'
+                    result_exit_ts = time_ms
+                    result_exit_price = tp2
+                    result_pnl_r = 0.5 * tp1_r + 0.5 * tp2_r
+                    break
+        else:  # SHORT
+            if not tp1_hit:
+                if price >= sl_current:
+                    result_status = 'sl'
+                    result_exit_ts = time_ms
+                    result_exit_price = sl_orig
+                    result_pnl_r = -1.0
+                    break
+                if price <= tp1:
+                    tp1_hit = True
+                    tp1_hit_ts = time_ms
+                    sl_current = entry * BE_OFFSET_SHORT
+            else:
+                if price >= sl_current:
+                    result_status = 'sl_be'
+                    result_exit_ts = time_ms
+                    result_exit_price = sl_current
+                    result_pnl_r = 0.5 * tp1_r
+                    break
+                if price <= tp2:
+                    tp2_r = (entry - tp2) / rd
+                    result_status = 'tp'
+                    result_exit_ts = time_ms
+                    result_exit_price = tp2
+                    result_pnl_r = 0.5 * tp1_r + 0.5 * tp2_r
+                    break
+
+    # Timeout或循环结束未触发
+    if not result_status:
+        # 检查flip_ts是否在timeout范围内但没被price_rows覆盖到
+        if flip_ts and flip_ts <= timeout_ts:
+            cur.execute("""
+                SELECT price FROM agg_trades 
+                WHERE symbol=%s AND time_ms <= %s 
+                ORDER BY time_ms DESC LIMIT 1
+            """, (symbol, flip_ts))
+            fp = cur.fetchone()
+            flip_price = fp[0] if fp else entry
+            if direction == 'LONG':
+                flip_pnl_half = (flip_price - entry) / rd
+            else:
+                flip_pnl_half = (entry - flip_price) / rd
+            if tp1_hit:
+                result_pnl_r = 0.5 * tp1_r + 0.5 * flip_pnl_half
+            else:
+                result_pnl_r = flip_pnl_half
+            result_status = 'signal_flip'
+            result_exit_ts = flip_ts
+            result_exit_price = flip_price
+        else:
+            # 真正的timeout
+            cur.execute("""
+                SELECT price FROM agg_trades 
+                WHERE symbol=%s AND time_ms <= %s 
+                ORDER BY time_ms DESC LIMIT 1
+            """, (symbol, timeout_ts))
+            lp = cur.fetchone()
+            exit_price = lp[0] if lp else entry
+            if direction == 'LONG':
+                timeout_half_pnl = (exit_price - entry) / rd
+            else:
+                timeout_half_pnl = (entry - exit_price) / rd
+            if tp1_hit:
+                result_pnl_r = 0.5 * tp1_r + 0.5 * timeout_half_pnl
+            else:
+                result_pnl_r = timeout_half_pnl
+            result_status = 'timeout'
+            result_exit_ts = timeout_ts
+            result_exit_price = exit_price
+
+    return {
+        'id': tid,
+        'entry': entry,
+        'rd': rd,
+        'tp1': tp1,
+        'tp2': tp2,
+        'sl_orig': sl_orig,
+        'tp1_hit': tp1_hit,
+        'tp1_hit_ts': tp1_hit_ts,
+        'status': result_status,
+        'exit_ts': result_exit_ts,
+        'exit_price': result_exit_price,
+        'pnl_r': round(result_pnl_r, 4),
+    }, None
+
+
+def main(dry_run=False):
+    conn = psycopg2.connect(host='10.106.0.3', dbname='arb_engine', user='arb', password='arb_engine_2026')
+    cur = conn.cursor()
+
+    cur.execute("""
+        SELECT id, symbol, direction, strategy, entry_ts, atr_at_entry
+        FROM paper_trades
+        WHERE atr_at_entry > 0
+        ORDER BY id ASC
+    """)
+    trades = cur.fetchall()
+    print(f"总计 {len(trades)} 笔待重放")
+
+    results = []
+    errors = []
+    for tid, symbol, direction, strategy, entry_ts, atr in trades:
+        res, err = replay_trade(cur, tid, symbol, direction, strategy, entry_ts, atr)
+        if err:
+            errors.append((tid, err))
+        else:
+            results.append((res, strategy))
+
+    print(f"成功重放: {len(results)}, 错误: {len(errors)}")
+    for e in errors[:5]:
+        print(f"  错误: {e}")
+
+    if not dry_run and results:
+        for res, _ in results:
+            r = res
+            cur.execute("""
+                UPDATE paper_trades SET
+                    entry_price = %s,
+                    tp1_price = %s,
+                    tp2_price = %s,
+                    sl_price = %s,
+                    tp1_hit = %s,
+                    status = %s,
+                    exit_price = %s,
+                    exit_ts = %s,
+                    pnl_r = %s,
+                    risk_distance = %s,
+                    price_source = 'last_trade',
+                    calc_version = 2
+                WHERE id = %s
+            """, (
+                r['entry'], r['tp1'], r['tp2'], r['sl_orig'],
+                r['tp1_hit'], r['status'], r['exit_price'], r['exit_ts'],
+                r['pnl_r'], r['rd'], r['id']
+            ))
+        conn.commit()
+        print(f"已写入 {len(results)} 笔")
+
+    # 统计
+    by_strategy = {}
+    for res, strat in results:
+        if strat not in by_strategy:
+            by_strategy[strat] = {'n': 0, 'wins': 0, 'total_r': 0.0, 'status': {}}
+        by_strategy[strat]['n'] += 1
+        by_strategy[strat]['total_r'] += res['pnl_r']
+        if res['pnl_r'] > 0:
+            by_strategy[strat]['wins'] += 1
+        s = res['status']
+        by_strategy[strat]['status'][s] = by_strategy[strat]['status'].get(s, 0) + 1
+
+    print("\n===== 重放统计（真实价口径）=====")
+    for strat, s in sorted(by_strategy.items()):
+        win_pct = s['wins'] / s['n'] * 100 if s['n'] > 0 else 0
+        print(f"  {strat}: {s['n']}笔, 胜率{win_pct:.1f}%, 总R={s['total_r']:+.2f}")
+        for st, c in sorted(s['status'].items()):
+            print(f"    {st}: {c}")
+
+    conn.close()
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    import sys
+    dry = '--dry-run' in sys.argv
+    print(f"模式: {'DRY RUN（不写入）' if dry else '正式写入'}")
+    main(dry_run=dry)